Sports betting markets tend to be efficient and over time they become more accurate meaning that all bookmakers will be offering almost the same odds for the same betting markets. Today’s bettors are much more educated and clever and use various tools to compare odds from different bookmakers and therefore if a bookmaker has its prices (odds) incorrectly built for specific markets they will attract significant amount of people to place a bet on these markets. As a result of the large volume of stakes placed on the same market the bookmaker will shorten (decrease) the odds in attempt to balance market. When there is a sharp odds decrease we use the term “dropping odds”. To sum up dropping odds is a term that is used to describe odds that have recently shorten quite significant.
Bettingmetrics dropping odds is a tool that will help you spot the latest market movements in specific bookmakers so you can eventually place your bets in a different bookmaker with higher odds. By using our fully automated dropping odds tool you will be able to be among the first to spot which bookmakers are decreasing their odds and place your bet with another bookmaker that has not yet updated his odds and therefore guarantee you bet with value.
Placing value bets does not mean that the chances of winning this certain bet are bigger, it effectively means that you are having higher chances to generate positive ROI over a long period of time. If you are not fully aware of the value betting concept do not worry we covered everything in our full guide Value betting explained
You should be interested in finding odds that have dropped with at least 5% as that ensures you bet with value. By the way our dropping odds tool is cleverly developed and will not display any odds that have drooped with less than 5% which will save you lots of time.
However if you sport odds that have dropped with 15% and more per cents would most likely mean that there have been some game changing news or experienced bettors have backed that given selection with a significant amount of money which caused the odds movement. If it happens that you witness similar situation you may want to skip the additional analysis that is usually recommended and quickly look for a better price in other bookmakers and place a bet before them adjusting the price.
As the betting markets fluctuate very often it is quite clear that you can use the dropping odds as an indicator of the most recent team news and where the money is, hence derive a better view where to place value bets.We would suggest adding the dropping odds as an additional variable to your current betting strategy as it will navigate you where the value and will likely help you increase your results.
A good strategy that would most likely ensure profits in the long run is finding value bets through sluggish bookmakers. It is pretty straight forward betting strategy, all you have to do is use Bettingmetrics dropping odds tool and find an event where the odds have dropped, once you do that simply use an odds comparison to find the same event from a less popular bookmaker that offers higher odds and place your bet there.
The reason why you are able to do that is because the major bookmakers have more resources to analyse the markets, improve their statistical models and as you can expect they can get their hands on the latest newsprior the smaller bookmakers
Worth emphasizing that in order to apply this strategy you should by quite fast with your execution as the small bookmakers will adjust their prices according to the global odds movements and you can miss the opportunity.
If you are risk averse person you can extend this strategy and wait for the bookmaker where you placed your bet to adjust the odds and cash out prior the game is finished and guarantee profit. You can take this approachfurther and lay the selection on any exchange and again lock yourself into a position of profit. Please note this is not risk free profit, it will require lotsof time at your end and as with any type of betting it does involve risk.