Have you ever wondered how to choose a profitable sports betting tipster? Surely, there are many punters around the world wondering how to choose the right tipster without being scammed and build a sustainable betting portfolio.
There are more and more blogs around the web poping up with people showing off how successful they are following some tipsters. Well let me tell you something - it is not that easy to find reliable tipster. I have been approached on various occasions and asked by punters how to share my experience with them. This is why I have decided to write an article that puts some frames to follow when choosing a tipster! I sincerely hope will help many people to make better choices and find the tipsters that is perfect fit for their needs!
A rather smart question you have to ask yourself - why do you have to listen to my advises? Well, my name is Martin Grozev and I am co-founder of Bettingmetrics. I have over 6 years of experience betting on sports and have utilised various betting strategies such as: arbitrage, matched and value betting, following tipsters, building own betting models and pretty much anything else you can think of in terms of sports betting.
I have proved that it is possible to make money by following tipsters but it is nowhere close to easy. It requires a lot of patience, discipline and it does take more time then what you expects. Below I will share 5 fundamental methods I follow when choosing a tipster.
1. Do not trust social media tipsters
First and foremost never ever trust people that are claiming to make crazy money from sports betting or that they know some fixed matches. Simply think logically if you have a massive edge over the bookmakers will you share it with everyone for free? Those guys or at least 99% of them are scammers and they take advantage of the newbies in the betting world. Avoid those type of new generation social media tipsters that pretend to make huge amounts of money. When you see a tipster publishing some big numbers on Twitter, Facebook, Telegram or any other social media always ask for their historical results and whether they have been verified by an independent third party!
What most of them do they have an affiliate deals with some bookmakers and make money when you lose money. These tipsters major goal is to refer you to a certain bookmaker and make you lose money so they can earn some cash.
2. Verified tipster
When choosing a tipster make sure it is reliable and verified by a third independent party. You can also you use tipster marketplaces such as the one available on Bettingmetrics. We are automatically verifying all tips published by Bettingmetrics tipsters - so you know the odds are real and they are not published tips for events that are already finished (another common scam). You can also analyse their historical results in details and make sure you are choosing the right tipster for you!
Internet is a great force and there is plenty of websites that offer verification services that you can take advantage of a good once i recommend is Smart Betting Club. Nevertheless stay focused and always critically analyse the numbers they provide. If you see tipsters that have never had a loosing month and they have always been on profit this is a huge red flag – be cautious. I personally recommend you to avoid tipsters that have never had a loosing month - in sports betting this is impossible.
3. Choose a tipster that fits your betting behaviour
Every person who bets has his own betting and sport preferences. When looking for a tipster - the rule "one size fits all " dose not apply. If you like some sports more than others, if you are risk averse and prefer to bet only a few times per week - look for the tipster that will match your needs. For instance, if you like to place a few bets during the weekend certainly go for a football tipster rather than a horse racing one. If you enjoy your night’s sleep, don't even bother to follow Australian ones in case you are based in Europe.
Furthermore, ensure you feel comfortable with the recommended bank size and stake plan. Some tipsters will recommend you to organise your money management with flat staking plan where others will advise you to use Kelly Criterion money management. Having your money management correctly established from the really beginning is particular important during losing runs which like it or not will occur at some point while following your tipster.
You should also pay attention to the price of the tipster. Choose only tipsters you can afford to buy - if purchasing a tipster will wipe half of your betting bank do not do it. That will put you in a situation where you have you either have to use leverage (will explain in other article what leverage is) or will decrease your profits to the extend where you will only earn to pay your tipsters fees. Therefore that will lead to a disappointment and can make you bet with emotions - it is never good.
4. Have Realistic Expectation
Having realistic expectation while looking for a tipster is from crucial importance. Being realistic for the profits you can make help you avoid scams - the more greedy you are the higher the chances are for being scammed! Achieving an average ROI of 3% while following a football tipster is pretty decent result in today's market. The ROI you can achieve will certainly vary based on the sports - for example if you are following a horse racing tipster you can expect much lower hit rate but higher ROI returns.
Once you chose a tipster have the right mind set. With other words have realistic expectations that will keep you focused and calm. For example, if you are planning to make 30 points profit over the season, do not expect to make them in the first month. Avoid having a mind set that makes you think you can become a millionaire from following 1 tipster. The truth is that you will not get get rich quickly and i guarantee you that it will not happen overnight. Remember tipster are human beings and they will be losing bets on a regular basis. You should not care whether they have won today, yesterday or tomorrow what it really matters is to be advised to place value bets. We have explained in details the concept of value betting and why it is crucial to making money form sports betting!
5. Be ready to lose
Accept the idea that you will be losing. Do not think that the tipster you are following will achieve a hit rate of 80%( that can only be promised by fake tipsters). Even if it happens will be for a very short period of time and you should not get emotionally affected by long winning or losing runs. Something I would recommend you is to read more about the correlation between hit rate and odds! A topic that will increase your generic betting IQ and it will also allow you to better judge which tipsters are potential scammers and which are worth following
In case you have liked what you read above i have recently wrote a full guide "How to successfully follow a tipster". I believe it is time consuming to find the tipster you want to follow but it is even harder to be disciplined enough and follow him for long enough to make money.