Factors to take into account when making your betting odds


There is a lot of complexity involved in sports games. However, as I outlined in my previous article “Why betting on lower leagues is more profitable”,  bookmakers do not always account for everything due to scarce resources. That provides opportunities for people to make money in the long run from careful analysis. Below I will provide insights into what factors I take into account when compiling betting odds. Nevertheless,this is a guide which is good to start with but it can always be further developed into highly standardised statistical model. With relatively high confidence I can say that if you follow all the advise in that guide you will improve your betting results.

Furthermore I will start writing and publishing in the Bettingmetrics blog several previews at least two times per month. All the previews will be focused for games in the lower football leagues. In case you want to prove me wrong and validate that I am incapable of generating betting profits by placing bets on the lower leagues you can track my predictions and forecasts.  I recommend you to use Bettingmetrics comprehensive but easy to use bet tracker and betting analytics. By tracking the advised bets you will be able to gain useful insights of my betting performance and test different money management strategies on paper. Doing this will allow you adjust your bankroll in order to maximise your betting profits in case you decide to place some real bets.

Team Form

Checking the team form is generally speaking quite essential, however I only take into consideration games from the last month. Anything before that is not too relevant and often can mislead you. We cannot judge too much about the current team status especially in the beginning of the campaign when all we have at our disposal are the results from friendly games (which are often not taken too seriously). However, only results will not tell us the whole picture – I personally take my statistical analysis further and I consider how many shots, dangerous attacks and corners the teams have had (for and against) in their recent encounters. As that sort of betting analysis is very complex and it takes time to build successful model I recommend you to test all your predictions on paper before actually placing bets. Furthermore in the betting blog there is another article “Can using recent form help you find profitable bets?” that investigates the  importance of the team form and how much we should weighted it when making our betting decision.

Home advantage

In my personal opinion, which in fact is backed by statistical results the home advantage is quite crucial. The fans support, familiarity with the pitch and the visitor team travelling, etc. are all factors that almost exclusively favour the home team one making your odds.

Head to head games

This is something which many bettors do not put too much emphasis on, but I believe it gives some useful insights. However, in the lower leagues it is likely that in the past two years or so both squads have not changed that much. That might not always be the case though. For instance, if wealthy investors come on-board or if the club is facing severe financial difficulties the starting XI for today might be very different from the folks that were regulars two seasons ago. A lot of sports sites will quote games from 20 years ago to arrest people’s attention about some notable trend – however, that has virtually no value in helping you evaluate odds correctly and thus gain money in the long-run.

Team news

Just having a list of ten missing players is not something to get excited about. The key here is how valuable these players are to the team (i.e. how many games have they played and have they been starters or substitutes?) My recommendation here is to research further what is the impact of the players missing a game. For example, a perform a detailed statistical analysis on key missing players and how their absence influence the game, further I have developed my proprietary statistical model that allows me to derive players ratings so I can quantify each player importance to the team.

Other factors

A) Further statistics - such as goals scored and conceded for the entire campaign.

B) Motivation – it is fundamental to establish whether a team has other priorities than a specific game (especially relevant at the end of the season or before a cup game)

C) Fatigue – some players are expected to play 6-7 games per month at peak times: that impacts their capabilities to perform well

D) Internal pressure – fans boycotting matches, the coach being sacked, players fired for disciplinary reasons, etc.

E) Unique factors – at the end of the day, each game should be analysed separately, and factors such as adverse weather may also become relevant

Obviously, how to derive your own odds is massive subject and can be written an enormous amount of text about it. I will certain partner for a long time with the Bettingmetrics team so will write more detailed articles. That article dose not target people who are already following their own betting models and are treating their betting as an investment.

This article is suitable for people who are new to sports betting and have the desire to improve their betting profits. Making money from betting on sports is certainly a difficult task and takes rather a long time this is why we offer refer to betting as the “The hard way to make easy money”. By following this guide you are increasing your chances to make profits form betting, another tip to take your betting to another level is to start tracking your bets.

About the author:

Nikola is a highly renowned professional tipster with 4 years of experience in the industry. You can contact him at: coldgoldbet@gmail.com

Disclaimer:

Please note that any previews, recommendations or information available on the Bettingmetrics website is just with informative purpose. All betting activities do involve risk, please bet with funds that you can afford to lose. Bettingmetrics cannot be hold responsible for any gains or losses occurred as a consequence of information found on the Bettingmetrics website!