Colombia’s reward for topping Group H is a winnable tie against an England side that rested a host of first-team players in defeat to Belgium, but may well be victims of a loss of momentum.
If you think English freshness will have a positive effect, then even-money for a Three Lions win looks like a good bet with Paddy Power. The bet looks even stronger now that Colombia star man James Rodriguez is struggling with injury ahead of the game.
Harry Kane comes up against club teammate Davinson Sanchez in Moscow, and his ability to find space in the penalty area could be heightened if he can exploit the weaknesses of Sanchez, who is error-prone in possession and liable to lapses in concentration. Kane is a certainty to score at least once, and is an unbelievable 6/5 with William Hill to score anytime against a defence that will give away chances.
But that can also be said of England’s back three, with John Stones and Harry Maguire being particularly wasteful in possession. The latter is also lacking in pace on the turn, and that could be exposed by the speed of Colombia’s Juan Cuadrado and Juan Quintero. With that in mind, both teams to score and over 2.5 goals looks like great value at at nearly 3/1 with Betfair for the double.
Quintero has already shown his threat from set pieces, scoring from a free kick in their opening round defeat to Japan. If England do give the ball away in dangerous positions they could well be forced into fouls around the edge of the box, and that’s where our lovely Quintero anytime goal single at 24/5 with William Hill comes in.
If I had to pick a winner in this one I would probably go for an England side that features just a couple more match-winners than the dangerous Colombians. The returning Dele Alli, as well as the goal-scoring form of Kane and a fresh first team should give them the edge. The England win plus both teams scoring is my top tip in this one at a whopping 9/2 with Coral.